This week, we read the first two chapters of part 4, The Mountaintop and The Euro. Next week, we’re finishing the book, read The App, The Good Forecast, and The Weather Diplomats. The following week we’ll do a wrap up of the whole book, and then we’re gonna start Radium Girls, so try to get your hands on that!
This week: weather models!
These chapters were all about the nitty gritty of how we predict the future and what, precisely, is a weather model. They’re more than just algorithms, and sort of resemble a behemoth that pulls in information and gradually improves upon the information.
The Euro is the most improved, has been climbing for two decades and now has no sign of stopping. By 2025, they hope to be able to predict high impact events fully two weeks ahead, they’re adding 90 new instruments a year, which is akin to “changing the tires on an eighteen-wheeler without pulling over.”
What did you think of these chapters? Were you impressed?
My favorite nugget in here was about the art on the wall of the conference room at the Euro HQ, and when I looked into it I found this additional info:
"This is the ECMWF boardroom where the Governing council meets. Note the Tapestry at the far end of the room. This is a styalised version of the Isobars of a severe storm which hit Europe in Feb 1953 killing 2100 people and in which 3 million had to be rescued. It hangs behind the chairman, to be a permanent reminder of the main reason for the ECMWF."
I was particularly impressed with the teams' collective pride in their work. Each seemed to understand the greater importance that their contribution had on the whole algorithm, and there was a good-natured competitiveness directed at the other models.
These chapters really helped make the idea of a "weather machine" come to life. Though perhaps vastly re-imagined from the original concept of a weather machine it's actually given me a new appreciation of the amount of data that goes into each day's weather forecast.
"No field of science offers a greater potential for the good of all mankind than does the field of atmospheric science" It amazes me how the prediction of weather has just gotten better and better each year, especially the Euro. In 2015 their six day forecast had gotten as good as the two day forecast in 1975. Also they were able to predict Sandy eight days ahead of time. I for one totally believe that by 2025 they will able to predict high-impact events two weeks ahead. Clearly as the author says in Top Gun (cue up the epic Steve Stevens Top Gun Anthem) terms The European Centre is the best of the best and should be totally marveled.
That is beautiful/frightening/creative. Wow!
I have heard so often of the "European model" whenever bad weather is predicted for my area - now I know why.
My favorite nugget in here was about the art on the wall of the conference room at the Euro HQ, and when I looked into it I found this additional info:
https://robin-schaefer.blogspot.com/2012/03/ecmwf.html
"This is the ECMWF boardroom where the Governing council meets. Note the Tapestry at the far end of the room. This is a styalised version of the Isobars of a severe storm which hit Europe in Feb 1953 killing 2100 people and in which 3 million had to be rescued. It hangs behind the chairman, to be a permanent reminder of the main reason for the ECMWF."
that's extremely rad and I love it
I was particularly impressed with the teams' collective pride in their work. Each seemed to understand the greater importance that their contribution had on the whole algorithm, and there was a good-natured competitiveness directed at the other models.
These chapters really helped make the idea of a "weather machine" come to life. Though perhaps vastly re-imagined from the original concept of a weather machine it's actually given me a new appreciation of the amount of data that goes into each day's weather forecast.
"No field of science offers a greater potential for the good of all mankind than does the field of atmospheric science" It amazes me how the prediction of weather has just gotten better and better each year, especially the Euro. In 2015 their six day forecast had gotten as good as the two day forecast in 1975. Also they were able to predict Sandy eight days ahead of time. I for one totally believe that by 2025 they will able to predict high-impact events two weeks ahead. Clearly as the author says in Top Gun (cue up the epic Steve Stevens Top Gun Anthem) terms The European Centre is the best of the best and should be totally marveled.